deadrisk

Narrative intelligence for tech markets

Track and trade tech trends faster than the street.

Twelve years of tech-news coverage — turned into momentum, narrative-shift, and second-order instruments. We report what the record shows. We never tell you what to buy.

000660.KS Chips 1472000.00 +3.8% 005930.KS Chips 229000.00 +1.8% 0100.HK AI Labs HK$169.00 +4.8% AMZN Amazon closed its AGI lab and was caught overspending on Anthropic's Claude internally, then within eight... 0981.HK Chips HK$43.62 +1.5% ALAB Chips 258.70 -10.9% AMD Chips 504.80 -10.9% ANT Anthropic has booked $19.2 billion of compute expense since 2023, against more than that in revenue. Its... AMZN Big Tech 240.35 -1.4% ANT AI Labs — APLD Neocloud 17.82 -8.2% AVGO Broadcom designs the custom chips Google, Meta and OpenAI run. Since May it has also helped its buyers... ASML Chips 1565.90 -6.5% AVGO Chips 326.08 -5.5% BABA AI Labs 98.04 -1.5% CRM AI agents don't need seats, and Salesforce built its business selling them by the seat. The coverage... BE Infra 203.17 -8.6% CBRS Chips 109.18 -5.2% CEG Infra 262.38 -0.8% CRWV CoreWeave supplies compute to OpenAI, Meta and Anthropic while Nvidia owns a stake, sells it chips, and... CRM SaaS 229.17 -0.8% CRWV Neocloud 54.87 -9.7% CVLT SaaS 165.13 -3.8% GOOGL Alphabet owns ~14% of Anthropic — the lab it competes with, rents a gigawatt of compute to, and lost a... FTNT SaaS 136.08 -2.2% GLW Infra 123.31 -4.3% GOOGL Big Tech 279.84 -1.4% INTC Intel beat its own Q3 forecast, then guided Q4 about $1.8 billion below analysts as memory prices slowed... INTC Chips 65.76 -28.6% IREN Neocloud 23.95 -8.8% META Big Tech 614.99 -1.5% META Meta has raised the floor of its 2026 spending forecast three times since January, and its shares fell the... MRVL Chips 196.40 -10.1% MSFT Big Tech 521.91 -1.6% MU Chips 884.74 -5.3% MRVL Marvell builds the chips hyperscalers design instead of buying — but a year of coverage shows talks, an... NBIS Neocloud 154.14 -10.4% NET SaaS 280.70 -9.5% NUAI Infra 2.73 -4.2% MSFT Microsoft called OpenAI a competitor in a 2024 filing. Two renegotiations later, it is swapping some of... NVDA Chips 204.64 -4.2% ORCL Big Tech 130.67 -6.4% PLTR SaaS 184.11 -6.3% NBIS What's left of a $31B Russian tech giant, gutted by war and sanctions, relisted on Nasdaq and pivoted... RBRK SaaS 124.15 -7.1% S SaaS 25.15 -2.2% SNDK Chips 1150.89 -13.5% NVDA TEXXR's coverage of Nvidia set a quarterly record in 2026Q3, after the stock's April record close and... SPCX Neocloud 134.72 -6.4% STX Chips 644.58 -8.0% TENB SaaS 50.75 -2.0% ORCL Oracle's borrowings reached $129.5 billion and its capex hit $55.7 billion in fiscal 2026, the year its... TSM Chips 406.13 -6.0% WULF Neocloud 11.73 -8.0% ZS SaaS 237.83 -4.0% SPCX A rocket company, a satellite network and an AI lab traded as three stories for a decade — then became one... TSM Apple's TSMC bill ran from $2B to $24B in eleven years, yet fell to a fifth of TSMC's revenue — the...

The registry

AI Labs — 3
0100.HK MiniMax Group A Shanghai model lab beat OpenAI and Anthropic to a public listing, then showed Hong Kong traders what an 80%-plus round trip looks like on a 5% float. HK$169.00 +4.8% 2026-10-27 ANT Anthropic Anthropic has booked $19.2 billion of compute expense since 2023, against more than that in revenue. Its S-1 names compute deals worth more than thirty times as much. ■ news BABA Alibaba Group Holding Alibaba flipped Qwen from open to closed and back to open in five months, and its flagship model's claim to rank second only to Anthropic's Fable 5 rests on Alibaba's own benchmarks — inside a record that also holds Anthropic's accusation that Alibaba illicitly extracted Claude's model capabilities. 98.04 -1.5% 2026-10-27
Chips — 15
000660.KS SK Hynix The world's largest HBM supplier had no page in this coverage until now — its record shows Nvidia picking a winner in memory well before Samsung's marketing caught up. ₩1472000.00 +3.8% 2026-10-27 005930.KS Samsung Electronics A dated 2024–2026 arc of Nvidia test failures and comebacks — real events, not commentary — but the freshest hard number still hands SK Hynix the volume. ₩229000.00 +1.8% 2026-10-27 0981.HK SMIC SMIC's 7nm chip has been confirmed four times by the same outside teardown lab — the claims about how it was built have sat unresolved in TEXXR's graph for up to three years. HK$43.62 +1.5% 2026-10-27 ALAB Astera Labs Astera Labs sells the retimers every AI rack needs more of — yet TEXXR's knowledge graph has never once recorded its ties to Nvidia, AMD or Amazon. 258.70 -10.9% 2026-10-27 AMD AMD TEXXR's record has run AMD as tech's permanent second source since at least 2015 — but 2026's coverage shows a company signing its own hyperscaler deals, on a stock that gained 186% in three months and then fell 26% in one. 504.80 -10.9% 2026-10-30 ASML ASML One company builds the machine that prints every leading-edge chip — which puts it inside more export-control fights than any other name in the record. 1565.90 -6.5% 2026-10-27 AVGO Broadcom Broadcom designs the custom chips Google, Meta and OpenAI run. Since May it has also helped its buyers pay, with a lease backstop worth up to $29 billion and a $42 billion note facility for Anthropic's rent. 326.08 -5.5% ■ news CBRS Cerebras Systems Two withdrawn IPO filings and two years later, Cerebras reached Nasdaq — and its two biggest customers are turning into shareholders. 109.18 -5.2% 2026-10-27 INTC Intel Intel beat its own Q3 forecast, then guided Q4 about $1.8 billion below analysts as memory prices slowed PC sales and an accident shut its Israel fab. 65.76 -28.6% ■ news MRVL Marvell Technology Marvell builds the chips hyperscalers design instead of buying — but a year of coverage shows talks, an investment, and one acquisition, and not one confirmed shipment. 196.40 -10.1% ■ news MU Micron A US-listed pure-play on the memory wall — where AI's hunger for HBM flipped a boom-bust commodity into an input Wall Street now prices like oil. 884.74 -5.3% 2026-10-30 NVDA Nvidia TEXXR's coverage of Nvidia set a quarterly record in 2026Q3, after the stock's April record close and before its October one. 204.64 -4.2% ■ news SNDK SanDisk SanDisk sells NAND flash, not the DRAM or HBM the AI trade is actually short of — and its stock tracks Micron and the Korean memory makers most tightly exactly when that complex is under stress. 1150.89 -13.5% 2026-10-30 STX Seagate Seagate makes hard drives, not memory chips. The coverage record files it with the memory makers, its stock moves almost in step with Western Digital's, and since August the record has gone nearly quiet while the price kept falling. 644.58 -8.0% 2026-10-27 TSM TSMC Apple's TSMC bill ran from $2B to $24B in eleven years, yet fell to a fifth of TSMC's revenue — the plainest number for how one foundry became everyone's chokepoint. 406.13 -6.0% ■ news
Neocloud — 6
APLD Applied Digital Applied Digital turned a bitcoin miner's power contracts into $36B of data-center leases — proof grid access, not silicon, is the scarce asset now. 17.82 -8.2% 2026-10-27 CRWV CoreWeave CoreWeave supplies compute to OpenAI, Meta and Anthropic while Nvidia owns a stake, sells it chips, and stands ready to buy back what it can't rent out. 54.87 -9.7% ■ news IREN IREN A bitcoin miner that fell to about a dollar rebuilt itself on the one input capital cannot buy forward — energized power — and in May Nvidia paid to prove it. 23.95 -8.8% 2026-10-27 NBIS Nebius Group What's left of a $31B Russian tech giant, gutted by war and sanctions, relisted on Nasdaq and pivoted whole into renting Nvidia GPUs to Microsoft and Meta. 154.14 -10.4% ■ news SPCX SpaceX A rocket company, a satellite network and an AI lab traded as three stories for a decade — then became one stock, each half still behaving differently. 134.72 -6.4% ■ news WULF TeraWulf TeraWulf turned a retired coal plant's grid into Google-backstopped AI leases, then signed a $19B Anthropic lease in Kentucky. 11.73 -8.0% 2026-10-27
Infra — 4
BE Bloom Energy Bloom's product is not the fuel cell. It is the one power plant a county will permit — which is what Oracle bought when its gas turbines would not clear. 203.17 -8.6% 2026-10-27 CEG Constellation Energy Constellation didn't build a reactor for the AI boom — it restarted one that already had a federal license, the one asset on the power wall that no amount of capital can produce on a faster clock. 262.38 -0.8% 2026-10-27 GLW Corning Corning had no AI story in the TEXXR record until 27 January 2026. In the nine months since, TEXXR has logged 13 articles naming it, against six in the two years before. 123.31 -4.3% 2026-10-27 NUAI New Era Energy & Digital A helium company that became a data-centre developer owns 493 acres in Odessa, has no signed tenant, a power contract signed only in September, and a first quarter its own audit committee told investors to stop relying on. 2.73 -4.2% 2026-10-27
SaaS — 9
CRM Salesforce AI agents don't need seats, and Salesforce built its business selling them by the seat. The coverage record tracks its answer to the threat. 229.17 -0.8% ■ news CVLT Commvault Recovery has a growing subscription base; the next test is how much customer cash remains after compensation and financing. 165.13 -3.8% 2026-10-27 FTNT Fortinet Fortinet's product sales have accelerated. The test is whether new appliances produce durable service revenue while the vendor keeps its own systems secure. 136.08 -2.2% 2026-10-27 NET Cloudflare Cloudflare's PHP response shows why its network matters. The financial test is whether useful defenses and developer tools produce durable paid growth. 280.70 -9.5% 2026-10-27 PLTR Palantir Tech's most argued-over stock — the coverage record shows how the argument itself changed shape. 184.11 -6.3% 2026-10-27 RBRK Rubrik Recovery now reaches beyond stored data to the identities and AI agents that can change it. 124.15 -7.1% 2026-10-22 S SentinelOne Half or more of SentinelOne's ARR comes from outside endpoint security, while stock pay still exceeds its reported operating gains. 25.15 -2.2% 2026-10-27 TENB Tenable Tenable One reached half of new sales in Q2 2026; the next test is whether broader products can lift company growth beyond single digits. 50.75 -2.0% 2026-10-27 ZS Zscaler The move from protecting employee access to governing AI actions now has to earn its place in revenue. 237.83 -4.0% 2026-10-27
Big Tech — 5
AMZN Amazon Amazon closed its AGI lab and was caught overspending on Anthropic's Claude internally, then within eight days completed a $50 billion stake in OpenAI and posted AWS's fastest growth since 2021. 240.35 -1.4% ■ news GOOGL Alphabet Alphabet owns ~14% of Anthropic — the lab it competes with, rents a gigawatt of compute to, and lost a Nobel laureate to. The record untangles it. 279.84 -1.4% ■ news META Meta Meta has raised the floor of its 2026 spending forecast three times since January, and its shares fell the day after four of its last five reports. 614.99 -1.5% ■ news MSFT Microsoft Microsoft called OpenAI a competitor in a 2024 filing. Two renegotiations later, it is swapping some of OpenAI's models out of its own apps. 521.91 -1.6% ■ news ORCL Oracle Oracle's borrowings reached $129.5 billion and its capex hit $55.7 billion in fiscal 2026, the year its free cash flow fell to a $23.7 billion outflow — the AI-capex loop's plainest look yet at what building this fast costs a balance sheet. 130.67 -6.4% ■ news

Where the story and the tape disagree — the divergence board.

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Latest video

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Latest analyses

pltr/hamilton-helmer/ Palantir through Hamilton Helmer — Palantir’s defense relationships remain its strongest candidate for a durable advantage, but NATO’s control concerns do not prove that rivals cannot earn similar access. 2026-11-02 sndk/robert-shiller/ SanDisk through Robert Shiller — SanDisk’s data-centre sales support the storage story, but its earnings and coverage record do not show that the story caused the stock’s moves. 2026-11-01 sndk/hamilton-helmer/ SanDisk through Hamilton Helmer — SanDisk’s sales growth and joint-venture cost claim do not yet establish a barrier against NAND rivals. 2026-10-31 googl/benjamin-graham/ Alphabet through Benjamin Graham — Alphabet’s lower share price has not settled Graham’s margin-of-safety question while spending exceeds operating cash and investment marks account for much of reported profit. 2026-10-30 the-pc-pays-the-memory-bill/ The PC Pays the Memory Bill — Intel cannot make enough server chips and cannot sell enough PC chips, and both shortfalls trace to the AI build. Its fourth-quarter forecast puts a first number on what memory prices cost in lost PCs: units down more than 20% in the second half, and no recovery until memory gets cheaper. 2026-10-30 ftnt/richard-thaler/ Fortinet through Richard Thaler — Fortinet’s post-earnings decline supplies a reference price, while its product and security records leave investor and customer decisions largely unobserved. 2026-10-29

The signal board

Power desk — 5
Power boom The AI power trade Eleven power deals since 2024 — six of them in 2026 alone. Power bill The AI power bill Five rate-hike filings in thirteen months, all citing AI data-center demand. Reactor bet The SMR bet Five reactor startups have raised $2.7B — none has shipped a commercial watt. Backlash The data center backlash Seventeen projects worth $98B blocked or delayed in a single quarter. 13F trail The 13F trail Who actually owns the power trade, filing by filing.
Silicon desk — 5
Compute rush The compute deals $30B into OpenAI alone — Nvidia is now investing in its own customers. Second source The second-source bet Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google all now ship AI silicon of their own. Memory bill The memory bill NAND contract prices are up 600%+ since September — someone pays for it. Export wall The export wall China chip export rules have reversed five times in sixteen months. Bull case The bull case on Micron Eight straight quarters of accelerating coverage — extinction never came.

Fund books

Situational Awareness LP Leopold Aschenbrenner · 7 filings Seven filings, from a $255m book to $20.2bn, priced forward against our own sessions. In March puts referencing $8.5bn hedged the chip stocks. By June they were gone, and $11.2bn sat in SanDisk and Micron a month before the rout. $20.2bn gross, 2026-06-30 -15.9% long book to 2026-09-30 -26.3% long book to 2026-10-30 The book held unchanged from its report date — what that filing would have done, never a realised return. Long only; option lines are notional and reported apart. Value Aligned Research Advisors VAR AI Fund, LP · 16 filings Seventeen filings, from a $221m long-only book to $40.1bn across 123 positions. It picked stocks for two years and then changed shape. Over half the reported value is now option underlying, which is not the same thing as money. $40.1bn gross, 2026-06-30 -14.7% long book to 2026-09-30 -25.1% long book to 2026-10-30 The book held unchanged from its report date — what that filing would have done, never a realised return. Long only; option lines are notional and reported apart.

Thinkers

benjamin-graham/ Benjamin Graham — The man who split price from value — a useful split when an industry prices the future before the facts arrive. lens hamilton-helmer/ Hamilton Helmer — Seven kinds of competitive Barrier, one test for each: does it survive someone actually trying to break it. lens hyman-minsky/ Hyman Minsky — A borrower is safe or fragile by when its debts fall due against when its cash comes in. Minsky's test asks which, and why good years push borrowers the wrong way. lens john-maynard-keynes/ John Maynard Keynes — An asset is worth building while its expected return clears the rate. Keynes's warning was that the expected return is the unstable half — and that cheaper money later makes today's equipment worth less, not more. lens ray-dalio/ Ray Dalio — A buildout funded by cash and a buildout funded by debt are different objects. Dalio's template asks the one question that separates them. lens richard-thaler/ Richard Thaler — A number that should stop a buyer often doesn't, and the reason is which account they filed it under. Thaler's mechanisms, read against the coverage record. lens robert-shiller/ Robert Shiller — A price's justifying story usually comes after the price, not before it — TEXXR's archive lets you watch that loop run through tech coverage. lens

The canon

7-powers/ 7 Powers — Hamilton Helmer 52 notes monetary-history/ A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 — Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz 22 notes advances-in-financial-ml/ Advances in Financial Machine Learning — Marcos López de Prado 49 notes energy-and-civilization/ Energy and Civilization — Vaclav Smil 17 notes for-our-posterity/ For Our Posterity — Leopold Aschenbrenner 23 notes inside-the-black-box/ Inside the Black Box — Rishi Narang 50 notes irrational-exuberance/ Irrational Exuberance — Robert Shiller 39 notes misbehaving/ Misbehaving — Richard Thaler 57 notes power-2026/ Power 2026 — Neel Somani 23 notes big-debt-crises/ Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises — Ray Dalio 55 notes quantitative-trading/ Quantitative Trading — Ernest Chan 36 notes security-analysis/ Security Analysis — Benjamin Graham & David Dodd 45 notes bezos-letters/ The Bezos Letters — Jeff Bezos 43 notes ai-compute-economics/ The Economics of AI Compute — Dylan Patel 25 notes general-theory/ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money — John Maynard Keynes 29 notes intelligent-investor/ The Intelligent Investor — Benjamin Graham 55 notes physics-of-wall-street/ The Physics of Wall Street — James Owen Weatherall 35 notes thinking-in-systems/ Thinking in Systems — Donella Meadows 17 notes when-genius-failed/ When Genius Failed — Roger Lowenstein 26 notes

Distilled reading notes — browse the canon. Buy the books.

The lab

app.deadrisk.com/ The DeadRisk Lab — our live options terminal. Where the record meets the tape. external ↗