deadrisk

Narrative intelligence for tech markets

Track and trade tech trends faster than the street.

Twelve years of tech-news coverage — turned into momentum, narrative-shift, and second-order instruments. We report what the record shows. We never tell you what to buy.

000660.KS Chips 1690000.00 -0.4% 005930.KS Chips 248500.00 -0.2% 0100.HK AI Labs HK$234.60 -7.0% 000660.KS The world's largest HBM supplier had no page in this coverage until now — its record shows Nvidia picking... 0981.HK Chips HK$60.75 -0.9% ALAB Chips 257.04 -11.7% AMD Chips 493.41 -4.4% 005930.KS A dated 2024–2026 arc of Nvidia test failures and comebacks — real events, not commentary — but the... AMZN Big Tech 253.54 -1.3% APLD Neocloud 24.58 -7.0% ASML Chips 1575.15 -7.2% 0100.HK A Shanghai model lab beat OpenAI and Anthropic to a public listing, then showed Hong Kong traders what an... BABA AI Labs 109.23 -0.1% BE Infra 257.05 -6.8% CBRS Chips 181.21 -5.6% AMZN Amazon closed its AGI lab and was caught overspending on Anthropic's Claude internally, then within eight... CEG Infra 264.57 -7.1% CRM SaaS 259.43 +4.7% CRWV Neocloud 82.98 -6.8% GOOGL Alphabet owns ~14% of Anthropic — the lab it competes with, rents a gigawatt of compute to, and just lost... GLW Infra 143.60 -13.7% GOOGL Big Tech 349.39 +3.2% INTC Chips 97.19 -5.6% META Meta raised its 2026 spending forecast twice in four months — first past the Street's estimate, then past... IREN Neocloud 43.17 -1.5% META Big Tech 665.60 +2.7% MRVL Chips 218.82 -7.3% MSFT Microsoft called OpenAI a competitor in a 2024 filing. The coverage graph didn't register the shift until... MSFT Big Tech 505.41 +2.0% MU Chips 924.03 -5.2% NBIS Neocloud 212.19 -5.5% NVDA TEXXR's own coverage volume for Nvidia peaked a full quarter before the stock's all-time high did, then... NVDA Chips 210.96 -3.4% ORCL Big Tech 144.79 -3.6% PLTR SaaS 173.31 +3.6% ORCL Oracle's debt balance reached $156 billion and its capex hit $55.7 billion in fiscal 2026, the year its... SNDK Chips 1551.99 -5.0% SPCX Neocloud 148.15 -2.0% TSM Chips 418.01 -3.5% SPCX A rocket company, a satellite network and an AI lab traded as three stories for a decade — then became one... WULF Neocloud 15.47 -7.6%

The registry

AI Labs — 2
0100.HK MiniMax Group A Shanghai model lab beat OpenAI and Anthropic to a public listing, then showed Hong Kong traders what an 80%-plus round trip looks like on a 5% float. HK$234.60 -7.0% ■ news BABA Alibaba Group Holding Alibaba flipped Qwen from open to closed and back to open in five months, and its flagship model's claim to rank second only to Anthropic's Fable 5 rests on Alibaba's own benchmarks — inside a record that also holds Anthropic's accusation that Alibaba illicitly extracted Claude's model capabilities. 109.23 -0.1% 2026-08-03
Chips — 13
000660.KS SK Hynix The world's largest HBM supplier had no page in this coverage until now — its record shows Nvidia picking a winner in memory well before Samsung's marketing caught up. ₩1690000.00 -0.4% ■ news 005930.KS Samsung Electronics A dated 2024–2026 arc of Nvidia test failures and comebacks — real events, not commentary — but the freshest hard number still hands SK Hynix the volume. ₩248500.00 -0.2% ■ news 0981.HK SMIC SMIC's 7nm chip has been confirmed three times by the same outside teardown lab — every claim about how it was built has sat unresolved in TEXXR's graph for up to two and a half years. HK$60.75 -0.9% 2026-08-03 ALAB Astera Labs Astera Labs sells the retimers every AI rack needs more of — yet TEXXR's knowledge graph has never once recorded its ties to Nvidia, AMD or Amazon. 257.04 -11.7% 2026-07-19 AMD AMD TEXXR's record has run AMD as tech's permanent second source since at least 2015 — but 2026's coverage shows a company signing its own hyperscaler deals, on a stock that gained 186% in three months and gave back a quarter of it in one. 493.41 -4.4% 2026-08-02 ASML ASML One company builds the machine that prints every leading-edge chip — which puts it inside more export-control fights than any other name in the record. 1575.15 -7.2% 2026-08-28 CBRS Cerebras Systems Two withdrawn IPO filings and two years later, Cerebras reached Nasdaq — and its two biggest customers are turning into shareholders. 181.21 -5.6% 2026-09-02 INTC Intel A hedge fund held calls on 20.2m Intel shares while the stock ran from $22.71 to $36.90, then flipped to puts at $44.13 — and Intel rose another 107% by July, through a government stake and an Apple courtship the record turned on twice. 97.19 -5.6% 2026-08-02 MRVL Marvell Technology Marvell builds the chips hyperscalers design instead of buying — but a year of coverage shows talks, an investment, and one acquisition, and not one confirmed shipment. 218.82 -7.3% 2026-08-28 MU Micron The only US-listed pure-play on the memory wall — where AI's hunger for HBM flipped a boom-bust commodity into an input Wall Street now prices like oil. 924.03 -5.2% 2026-07-24 NVDA Nvidia TEXXR's own coverage volume for Nvidia peaked a full quarter before the stock's all-time high did, then cooled for two quarters running. 210.96 -3.4% ■ news SNDK SanDisk SanDisk sells NAND flash, not the DRAM or HBM the AI trade is actually short of — and its stock tracks Micron and the Korean memory makers most tightly exactly when that complex is under stress. 1551.99 -5.0% 2026-08-02 TSM TSMC Apple's TSMC bill ran from $2B to $24B in a decade — a quarter of TSMC's revenue, and the plainest number for how one foundry became everyone's chokepoint. 418.01 -3.5% 2026-08-28
Neocloud — 6
APLD Applied Digital Applied Digital turned a bitcoin miner's power contracts into $16B of data-center leases — proof grid access, not silicon, is the scarce asset now. 24.58 -7.0% 2026-07-19 CRWV CoreWeave CoreWeave supplies compute to OpenAI, Meta and Anthropic while Nvidia owns a stake, sells it chips, and stands ready to buy back what it can't rent out. 82.98 -6.8% 2026-09-11 IREN IREN A bitcoin miner that fell to about a dollar rebuilt itself on the one input capital cannot buy forward — energized power — and in May Nvidia paid to prove it. 43.17 -1.5% 2026-07-22 NBIS Nebius Group What's left of a $31B Russian tech giant, gutted by war and sanctions, relisted on Nasdaq and pivoted whole into renting Nvidia GPUs to Microsoft and Meta. 212.19 -5.5% 2026-07-19 SPCX SpaceX A rocket company, a satellite network and an AI lab traded as three stories for a decade — then became one stock, each half still behaving differently. 148.15 -2.0% ■ news WULF TeraWulf TeraWulf turned a retired coal plant's grid into a $19B Anthropic lease — the Google-backstopped template now repeating across the bitcoin-miner cohort. 15.47 -7.6% 2026-07-19
Infra — 3
BE Bloom Energy Bloom's product is not the fuel cell. It is the one power plant a county will permit — which is what Oracle bought when its gas turbines would not clear. 257.05 -6.8% 2026-07-22 CEG Constellation Energy Constellation didn't build a reactor for the AI boom — it restarted one that already had a federal license, the one asset on the power wall that no amount of capital can produce on a faster clock. 264.57 -7.1% 2026-08-02 GLW Corning Corning had no AI story in the TEXXR record until 27 January 2026. Six months later, 41 of the 48 hyperedges the graph has ever logged on the company sit after that date. 143.60 -13.7% 2026-08-03
SaaS — 2
CRM Salesforce AI agents don't need seats, and Salesforce built its business selling them by the seat. The coverage record tracks its answer to the threat. 259.43 +4.7% 2026-08-28 PLTR Palantir Tech's most argued-over stock — the coverage record shows how the argument itself changed shape. 173.31 +3.6% 2026-07-18
Big Tech — 5
AMZN Amazon Amazon closed its AGI lab and was caught overspending on Anthropic's Claude internally, then within eight days completed a $50 billion stake in OpenAI and posted AWS's fastest growth since 2021. 253.54 -1.3% ■ news GOOGL Alphabet Alphabet owns ~14% of Anthropic — the lab it competes with, rents a gigawatt of compute to, and just lost a Nobel laureate to. The record untangles it. 349.39 +3.2% ■ news META Meta Meta raised its 2026 spending forecast twice in four months — first past the Street's estimate, then past its own — and investors' patience ran out. 665.60 +2.7% ■ news MSFT Microsoft Microsoft called OpenAI a competitor in a 2024 filing. The coverage graph didn't register the shift until 2026 — and then registered it fast. 505.41 +2.0% ■ news ORCL Oracle Oracle's debt balance reached $156 billion and its capex hit $55.7 billion in fiscal 2026, the year its free cash flow fell to a $23.7 billion outflow — the AI-capex loop's plainest look yet at what building this fast costs a balance sheet. 144.79 -3.6% ■ news

Where the story and the tape disagree — the divergence board.

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Latest analyses

intc/hamilton-helmer/ Intel through Hamilton Helmer — Intel’s 18A recovery shows a product benefit, but the record has not shown a barrier that rivals cannot copy or outscale. 2026-09-11 meta/hamilton-helmer/ Meta through Hamilton Helmer — Muse turns Meta’s AI spending into a consumer service, but the launch discloses no cost gap or exit barrier that would add a second Power. 2026-09-10 intc/benjamin-graham/ Intel through Benjamin Graham — Intel’s operating record has improved, but the supplied evidence cannot establish a margin of safety at the $104.47 close on September 8, 2026. 2026-09-09 amd/robert-shiller/ AMD through Robert Shiller — AMD’s earnings and contracts support the AI story, but its price swings and coverage framing leave buyer-recruitment feedback unproved. 2026-09-07 orcl/orcl-earnings-2026-09-10-preview/ Oracle’s 2026-09-10 report tests the funding chain — Revenue is growing, but Oracle still has to connect contracts, site delivery, power and financing to cash. 2026-09-07 amd/hamilton-helmer/ AMD through Hamilton Helmer — AMD shows demand and cash-flow growth, but the record has not proved a barrier that turns either into continuing Power. 2026-09-06

The signal board

Power desk — 5
Power boom The AI power trade Eleven power deals since 2024 — six of them in 2026 alone. Power bill The AI power bill Five rate-hike filings in thirteen months, all citing AI data-center demand. Reactor bet The SMR bet Five reactor startups have raised $2.7B — none has shipped a commercial watt. Backlash The data center backlash Seventeen projects worth $98B blocked or delayed in a single quarter. 13F trail The 13F trail Who actually owns the power trade, filing by filing.
Silicon desk — 5
Compute rush The compute deals $30B into OpenAI alone — Nvidia is now investing in its own customers. Second source The second-source bet Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google all now ship AI silicon of their own. Memory bill The memory bill NAND contract prices are up 600%+ since September — someone pays for it. Export wall The export wall China chip export rules have reversed five times in sixteen months. Bull case The bull case on Micron Eight straight quarters of accelerating coverage — extinction never came.

Fund books

Situational Awareness LP Leopold Aschenbrenner · 6 filings Six filings, from a $255m book to $13.7bn, priced forward against our own sessions. The long side was right for fifteen months. The hedge was in the right sector and the wrong direction. $13.7bn gross, 2026-03-31 +110.8% long book to 2026-06-30 -44.5% long book to 2026-07-29 The book held unchanged from its report date — what that filing would have done, never a realised return. Long only; option lines are notional and reported apart. Value Aligned Research Advisors VAR AI Fund, LP · 15 filings Sixteen filings, from a $221m long-only book to $20.7bn across 107 positions. It picked stocks for two years and then changed shape. Over half the reported value is now option underlying, which is not the same thing as money. $20.7bn gross, 2026-03-31 +69.3% long book to 2026-06-30 -18.8% long book to 2026-08-03 The book held unchanged from its report date — what that filing would have done, never a realised return. Long only; option lines are notional and reported apart.

Thinkers

benjamin-graham/ Benjamin Graham — The man who split price from value — a useful split when an industry prices the future before the facts arrive. lens hamilton-helmer/ Hamilton Helmer — Seven kinds of competitive Barrier, one test for each: does it survive someone actually trying to break it. lens john-maynard-keynes/ John Maynard Keynes — An asset is worth building while its expected return clears the rate. Keynes's warning was that the expected return is the unstable half — and that cheaper money later makes today's equipment worth less, not more. lens ray-dalio/ Ray Dalio — A buildout funded by cash and a buildout funded by debt are different objects. Dalio's template asks the one question that separates them. lens richard-thaler/ Richard Thaler — A number that should stop a buyer often doesn't, and the reason is which account they filed it under. Thaler's mechanisms, read against the coverage record. lens robert-shiller/ Robert Shiller — A price's justifying story usually comes after the price, not before it — TEXXR's archive lets you watch that loop run through tech coverage. lens

The canon

7-powers/ 7 Powers — Hamilton Helmer 51 notes monetary-history/ A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 — Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz 22 notes advances-in-financial-ml/ Advances in Financial Machine Learning — Marcos López de Prado 78 notes energy-and-civilization/ Energy and Civilization — Vaclav Smil 17 notes for-our-posterity/ For Our Posterity — Leopold Aschenbrenner 23 notes inside-the-black-box/ Inside the Black Box — Rishi Narang 68 notes irrational-exuberance/ Irrational Exuberance — Robert Shiller 48 notes misbehaving/ Misbehaving — Richard Thaler 59 notes power-2026/ Power 2026 — Neel Somani 23 notes big-debt-crises/ Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises — Ray Dalio 58 notes quantitative-trading/ Quantitative Trading — Ernest Chan 36 notes security-analysis/ Security Analysis — Benjamin Graham & David Dodd 55 notes ai-compute-economics/ The Economics of AI Compute — Dylan Patel 25 notes general-theory/ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money — John Maynard Keynes 29 notes intelligent-investor/ The Intelligent Investor — Benjamin Graham 58 notes physics-of-wall-street/ The Physics of Wall Street — James Owen Weatherall 39 notes thinking-in-systems/ Thinking in Systems — Donella Meadows 17 notes when-genius-failed/ When Genius Failed — Roger Lowenstein 25 notes

Distilled reading notes — browse the canon. Buy the books.

The lab

app.deadrisk.com/ The DeadRisk Lab — our live options terminal. Where the record meets the tape. external ↗